Hwt spring Experiment 2011 model comparisons 1 June ok-mo severe storms Very subtle boundaries, really not a lot of surface forcing


НазваHwt spring Experiment 2011 model comparisons 1 June ok-mo severe storms Very subtle boundaries, really not a lot of surface forcing
Дата конвертації15.03.2013
Розмір445 b.
ТипПрезентации


HWT Spring Experiment 2011 model comparisons 1 June OK-MO severe storms

  • Very subtle boundaries, really not a lot of surface forcing

  • But lots of storms with quite a lot of severe weather and some tornadoes

  • Probably a bit more activity than SPC anticipated

    • Strong storms develop from MKC west across northern KS
    • And at far western edge of domain near an ill-defined dryline
  • Opportunity to see both development and maintenance of storms

    • There is a strong echo in ne KS at 18z; both models seem to do a good job with this.
  • Strong storm development beginning about 20z

    • The HRRR is a little too early with echo development
    • But this time STMAS develops strong storms soon after
      • Also STMAS has some odd-looking tiny echoes beginning by 19z; what are these?
      • By 21z STMAS has a strong storm in OK that persists through 23z but there is nothing that ever actually develops there; HRRR does not have anything there
    • Both models are similar with a line of storms forming along the dryline se CO to ne NM, and in both cases this line develops too fast and moves out too quickly in the model forecasts
  • Comparison of 00z runs (using HWT homepage)

    • Although LAPS (and ARW runs) certainly get the initial echoes best (over HRRR), all the models are close by 1-h, and one could argue the HRRR is best > 3 h
  • Overall summary

    • STMAS is actually similar in timing to the HRRR (HRRR just a bit faster), but STMAS has way too much echo in OK, so HRRR a better overall forecast for this comparison

1 June 2011: Line of severe storms develops from KS to OK

  • Slight Risk in place

  • Storms begin to develop by 21z then line rapidly develops near and after 00z Opportunity to compare runs beginning at 18z/30 May



1 June 2011 - overview



1800 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – Analysis comparisons (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 1-h forecast comparisons (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 2-h forecast comparisons (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 3-h forecast comparisons (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 4-h forecast comparisons (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 5-h forecast comparisons (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 6-h forecast comparisons valid 0000 UTC 2 June (composite reflectivity)



Model comparison: 0000 UTC 2 June analyses



Model comparison 0000 UTC/2 June runs: 1-h forecasts



Model comparison 0000 UTC/2 June runs: 2-h forecasts



Model comparison 0000 UTC/2 June runs: 3-h forecasts



Model comparison 0000 UTC/2 June runs: 4-h forecasts



Model comparison 0000 UTC/2 June runs: 5-h forecasts



Model comparison 0000 UTC/2 June runs: 6-h forecasts



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