31 May: Late developing storms western tx


Назва31 May: Late developing storms western tx
Дата конвертації15.03.2013
Розмір445 b.
ТипПрезентации


31 May: Late developing storms western TX

  • General upslope across Southern Plains produces storms far western TX after 21z with some severe weather

    • Mostly within a small area of Slight Risk
    • Storms were severe with a number of severe hail reports, max = baseball hail
  • HWT focus area was more centered on MI where a Moderate Risk was in place, and these forecasts are not discussed here.

  • Runs examined

    • 1800 UTC: LAPS, STMAS and HRRR.
    • No echoes develop until 2200 UTC in far western TX/eastern NM
    • LAPS and STMAS do not have any echoes forecast (under-forecast), while HRRR has too much
    • 2200 UTC: LAPS and HRRR only.
    • Gradual strengthening of echoes in western TX/eastern NM in general upslope area
    • The HRRR has a pretty good forecast, while LAPS is way under-forecast
    • 0000 UTC: LAPS, STMAS and HRRR.
    • Lots of severe hail reports this period, activity gradually weakens by 0600 UTC.
    • LAPS continues to be way under-forecasting the activity, while STMAS and HRRR are much more active but different, with an edge to the HRRR.

31 May: Reports and Convective Outlook

  • Moderate Risk in MI, separate Slight Risk over western TX (see below)

    • HWT focus area (for 00z runs) is centered on MI
  • Strong cold front associated with the Moderate Risk

  • Slight Risk area in western TX just a general upslope area

  • Opportunity to compare runs beginning at 18z/31 May

    • Forecast comparison (no initial storms) for LAPS/STMAS, then later storms in progress


Tuesday 31 May 2011 - overview



1800 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – Analysis comparisons (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 1-h forecast valid 1900 UTC (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 2-h forecast valid 2000 UTC (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 3-h forecast valid 2100 UTC (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 4-h forecast valid 2200 UTC (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 5-h forecast valid 2300 UTC (composite reflectivity)



1800 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 6-h forecast valid 0000 UTC/1 June (composite reflectivity)



Summary of 1800 UTC 31 May forecast cycle

  • Not a lot of development during this time frame except for far sw TX and ne NM along dry line.

  • Cold front overall weakens with time in domain (from STL south) with no real development on it.

  • The HRRR has too much development along the cold front and/or old frontal boundary where none occurs. LAPS & STMAS have nothing here.

  • But the HRRR does correctly develop storms in far sw TX/eastern NM whereas LAPS and STMAS have nothing here either.

  • STMAS has a lot of tiny echoes that are probably very weak; are these trying to represent tcu?



2200 UTC 31 May forecast cycle

  • Only LAPS HWT2 and HRRR available for this cycle (no STMAS).

  • There is really no surface-based forcing feature

    • The cold front is pretty much washed out south of central MO
    • There is no real dryline, in fact more se upslope flow into western TX and eastern NM
  • Main action is storms gradually forming in western TX and eastern NM and these storms result in a number of large hail reports.



Tuesday 31 May 2011 – overview for 22z run cycle



2200 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – Analyses (composite reflectivity)



2200 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 1-h forecast valid 2300 UTC/31 May (composite reflectivity)



2200 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 2-h forecast valid 0000 UTC/1 June (composite reflectivity)



2200 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 3-h forecast valid 0100 UTC/1 June (composite reflectivity)



2200 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 4-h forecast valid 0200 UTC/1 June (composite reflectivity)



2200 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 5-h forecast valid 0300 UTC/1 June (composite reflectivity)



2200 UTC 31 May 2011 runs – 6-h forecast valid 0400 UTC/1 June (composite reflectivity)



Summary of 2200 UTC 31 May forecast cycle

  • Slowly increasing development western TX/eastern NM

    • No real forcing feature, just easterly flow onto the High Plains
  • The HRRR has a pretty good forecast, while LAPS does not have anything in this area.

  • Overall summary: way under-forecast by LAPS, fairly good forecast by HRRR.



0000 UTC 1 June forecast cycle

  • Compare LAPS HWT2 and HRRR for this cycle.

  • An interesting time, with echoes developing more by 02z (end of the LAPS forecast cycle).

  • Main forcing feature is the cold front moving across western NE/KS.

  • Also a dryline further south, but no echoes form here through 03z.



1 June 2011 – overview for 00z run cycle



0000 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – Analysis comparisons (composite reflectivity)



0000 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 1-h forecasts valid 0100 UTC (composite reflectivity)



0000 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 2-h forecasts valid 0200 UTC (composite reflectivity)



0000 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 3-h forecasts valid 0300 UTC (composite reflectivity)



0000 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 4-h forecasts valid 0400 UTC (composite reflectivity)



0000 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 5-h forecasts valid 0500 UTC (composite reflectivity)



0000 UTC 1 June 2011 runs – 6-h forecasts valid 0600 UTC (composite reflectivity)



Summary of 0000 UTC 1 June forecast cycle

  • This is a period of some pretty strong cells in western TX/far eastern NM.

    • A number of severe hail reports from these, including up to baseball sized hail.
  • The runs start out quite similar, capturing the activity, but then diverge.

    • LAPS loses all the cells by 4-h into the forecast.
    • STMAS tends to over-organize the convection in the TX Panhandle into an MCS-looking complex with an organized arc of outflow. Radar suggests such an arc may have formed but cells are much weaker than in the forecast.
    • STMAS does capture some of the cells in eastern NM.
    • The HRRR does best at capturing some of the cells at the northern end of the activity, and also has a little bit in eastern NM.
  • Overall summary: LAPS does the poorest job, STMAS is different from the HRRR and both have some issues, but probably would need to give an edge to the HRRR overall.



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