European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (E. C. M. W. F.) Reading, uk wave Model Products


НазваEuropean Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (E. C. M. W. F.) Reading, uk wave Model Products
Дата конвертації15.03.2013
Розмір445 b.
ТипПрезентации


Ocean Wave products

Jean-Raymond Bidlot

Marine Aspects Section

Predictability Division of the Research Department

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (E.C.M.W.F.)

Reading, UK


Wave Model Products

The complete description of the sea state is given by the 2-D spectrum, however, it is a fairly large amount of data (e.g. 1296 values at each grid point in the global model (36x36).

It is therefore reduced to integrated quantities:
    • 1-D spectrum obtained by integrating the 2-D spectrum over all directions and/or over a frequency range.


Wave Model Products

When simple numbers are required, the following parameters are available:
    • The significant wave height (Hs).
    • The peak period (period of the peak of the 1-D spectrum).
    • Mean period(s) obtained from weighted integration of the 2-D spectrum.
    • Integrated mean direction.
    • Few others.



ECMWF Wave Model Configurations

  • Global from 81°S to 90°N

  • Coupled to the atmospheric model (IFS) with feedback of the sea surface roughness change due to waves. The Stokes drift is also returned for the parameterisation in the skin layer model for the daily cycle of the SST.

  • The interface between the wave model and the IFS has been generalised to include air density and gustiness effects on wave growth and neutral winds.

  • Data assimilation of ENVISAT and Jason-2 altimeter wave heights.



ECMWF Wave Model Configurations

Probabilistic forecasts

(EPS)
  • 55 km grid spacing.

  • 30 25 frequencies *.

  • 24  12 directions *.

  • Coupled to TL639  TL319 model *.

  • (50+1) (10+5) day forecasts from 0 and 12Z (monthly twice a week).



Wave Model Products



So far, everything has been presented as output from the deterministic forecast system. BUT, forecast should actually be more probabilistic. Nowadays, weather centres rely on ensemble techniques :



Basic EPS Wave Model Products:



A bit more compact: Wave EPSgram:



Basic EPS Wave Model Products



Basic EPS Wave Model Products



More advanced EPS Wave Model Products:



More advanced EPS Wave Model Products:



It was observed …:



We are not always dealing with nice ‘predictable’ waves:



Individual Waves, Significant Wave Height, Hs, Maximum Individual Wave Height, Hmax, and Freak Wave



Wave Model Products: Extreme Waves



Wave Model Products: Extreme Waves



Questions?



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