Marc storm on 27 May 2011 near Newcomb, New York Motivation/Goals


НазваMarc storm on 27 May 2011 near Newcomb, New York Motivation/Goals
Дата конвертації05.05.2013
Розмір487 b.
ТипПрезентации


MARC Storm on 27 May 2011 near Newcomb, New York


Motivation/Goals

  • Why damaging winds occurred near Newcomb, NY on 27 May 2011

  • What is a MARC and how can I use radar data to examine this signature

  • Review environmental conditions favorable for MARC radar signatures

  • Better understand the MARC signature for improved warning decisions

  • Interrogate KCXX and KTYX radar data to identify MARC near Newcomb, NY on 27 May 2011 at 2044 UTC

  • From EOC numerous trees down near Newcomb NY between 2040 and 2045 UTC on 27 May 2011



Pre-Storm Environment

  • Will examine 18 UTC Albany, NY sounding

  • Utilize satellite and surface observations to identify boundary

  • Investigate 250mb and 925mb upper air analysis

  • Review CAPE and Shear values



Albany, NY 18 UTC Sounding on 27 May 2011



250mb Upper Air Analysis on 27 May 2011 at 12 UTC



925mb Upper Air Analysis on 27 May 2011 at 12 UTC



Visible Satellite and Surface Observations at 18 UTC on 27 May 2011



Meso-Analysis of Lifted Index at 14 UTC on 27 May 2011



RUC40 Most Unstable Cape and Surface Winds at 19 UTC on 27 May 2011



What is a MARC Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (Schmocker and Przybylinski)

  • The MARC velocity signature is a Doppler radar-velocity based precursor towards forecasting the initial onset of damaging straight-line winds in a linear Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) or bowing convective system. Strong and deep radial convergence at the storm's mid-altitudes (11 - 14 km).

  • 25 m s-1 velocity difference along three to five (maybe six) radials between the area of outbound to inbound velocities was an initial signal or starting point for damaging winds to occur

  • Calculating MARC you add the magnitude of the maximum outbound value and the maximum inbound value

  • Average depth of MARC was 6.2 km. Strongest magnitudes of MARC between 4 and 7 km

  • Width of radial convergence 2 to 6 km.

  • The viewing angle is extremely important when viewing the MARC velocity signature. The convective line must be nearly perpendicular to the radial when you are calculating MARC





KCXX Reflectivity Cross Section near Newcomb, NY at 2046 UTC on 27 May 2011



KCXX Velocity Cross Section near Newcomb, NY at 2046 UTC on 27 May 2011



KCXX Velocity Cross Section near Newcomb, NY at 2046 UTC on 27 May 2011



FSI of Storm 4 Minutes Prior to Severe Report at Newcomb, NY at 2041 UTC





KCXX Reflectivity Cross Section near Newcomb, NY at 2051 UTC on 27 May 2011



KTYX Velocity Cross Section near Newcomb, NY at 2040 UTC on 27 May 2011



KCXX Reflectivity Cross Section Loop from 2031 UTC to 2056 near Newcomb, NY on 27 May 2011



KCXX Vertical Integrated Liquid at 2056 UTC on 27 May 2011



KCXX 5.1° Base Reflectivity at 2046 UTC near Newcomb, NY on 27 May 2011



KCXX 1.3°Storm Relative Motion at 2046 UTC



KCXX 1.3° Base Reflectivity at 2051 UTC



KCXX 1.3° Base Reflectivity at 2056 UTC on 27 May 2011



KCXX 1.3° Base Reflectivity at 2056 UTC on 27 May 2011



Conclusion and Lessons Learned Why damaging winds occurred near Newcomb, NY

  • Max inbound was 50 knots and outbound was 25 knots for a maximum MARC signature of 75 knots near 12,000 feet.

  • MARC signature between 3km and 6km, slightly less than Central Plain storms due to lower storm top and associated equilibrium levels

  • The MARC signature was 2 to 3km’s deep and only persisted for 2 or 3 volume scans

  • It’s extremely critical to determine proper storm motion and draw your line perpendicular to radial

  • The distance from radar, terrain, and 250 to 260° storm movement made sampling difficult

  • The viewing angle is extremely important when viewing the MARC velocity signature. The convective line must be nearly perpendicular to the radial when you are calculating MARC

  • Once again steep surface to 3km lapse rates helped to enhance thunderstorm downdraft (Windex 46)



Conclusion

  • Anti-cyclonic circulation was present in the developing comma-head of the bowing line segment with a rotational velocity of 37 knots 5 minutes after wind report

  • Cross sections showed higher reflectivity descending toward the surface, along with the 50 knot winds near Newcomb, NY

  • The maximum height of the 50 dBZ was only 27,000 feet, well short of the 33,000 to 35,000 feet needed for 1 inch hail

  • Storm motion of 40 mph, also a good indicator of wind potential



Less than 2 months until the turn!!!



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Мультимедійна презентація «Історичний розвиток обчислювальної техніки», Бойко М. Я

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