Maintenance and Dissipation of Mesoscale Convective Systems that Encounter the Great Lakes


НазваMaintenance and Dissipation of Mesoscale Convective Systems that Encounter the Great Lakes
Дата конвертації05.05.2013
Розмір528 b.
ТипПрезентации


Maintenance and Dissipation of Mesoscale Convective Systems that Encounter the Great Lakes


Motivation

  • MCS maintained its identity crossing Lake Michigan while intense supercell dissipated (will focus on MCS)



Purpose

  • Describe synoptic/mesoscale flow evolution leading to convection that was not well forecast by the large-scale models

  • Explain why a severe weather-producing MCS was maintained while crossing Lake Michigan

  • Discuss an MCS cold-pool-induced boundary that focused additional severe weather in the wake of the MCS



Datasets

  • 20-km  20-km RUC analyses (50 vertical levels)

  • NCDC NEXRAD level 3 radar base reflectivity

  • RAP infrared and water vapor satellite images

  • University at Albany surface data archives

  • University at Albany sounding archives



Radar Evolution

























Upper-level Overview











Mesoscale Evolution and Convective Development









































Concluding Hypothesis

  • MCS developed in high shear environment and created strong cold pool in association with dry air aloft

  • Vigorous ascent was maintained over lake as MCS cold pool depth >> lake cold pool depth and ascent was aided by:

    • ageostrophic circulation associated with frontogenesis
    • strong low-level jet stream advecting warm/unstable air
    • weak short-wave trough


Conclusions

  • MCS cold pool created quasi-stationary boundary that:

    • increased low-level shear (better supercell environment)
    • acted as a warm front (focus for isentropic ascent)
  • Illinois supercell dissipated over Lake Michigan where water temperatures was near 8–10°C



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