Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Lake Michigan Motivation Great Lakes area is a region of frequent mcs (mcc and derecho) activity


НазваMaintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Lake Michigan Motivation Great Lakes area is a region of frequent mcs (mcc and derecho) activity
Дата конвертації05.05.2013
Розмір500 b.
ТипПрезентации


Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems over Lake Michigan


Motivation

  • Great Lakes area is a region of frequent MCS (MCC and derecho) activity

    • Important to understand behavior of MCSs when crossing the Great Lakes


Background - RKW Theory

  • Using the 2D horizontal vorticity equation, changes in horizontal vorticity can be related to horizontal gradients of buoyancy

    • Cold pool in diagram has negative circulation that exactly balances circulation from horizontal shear in “optimal state”
  • How is this conceptual model modified by Lake Michigan?



Purpose

  • Present a climatology of MCSs that encounter Lake Michigan

  • Describe an MCS that maintained while crossing Lake Michigan and place it into the context of the climatology



MCS Selection Criteria

  • Warm Season (Apr–Sept)

  • 2002–2007

  • MCSs in the study must:

    • be ≥[100  50 km] on NOWrad composite reflectivity imagery
    • contain a continuous region ≥100 km of 45 dBZ echoes
    • meet the above two criteria for >3 h prior to crossing Lake Michigan


Climatology of MCSs

  • MCSs maintained upon crossing the lake if they:

    • continued to meet the two aforementioned reflectivity criteria
    • produced at least one severe report


Monthly Distributions



Hourly Distributions (UTC)





Radar Evolution











Upper-level Overview











850-hPa Wind Climatology



Mesoscale Evolution and Convective Development























Water Temperature Climatology



Inversion Climatology



Phase Space - Warm Season



Phase Space - Early Season



Conclusions

  • 47 of 111 MCSs (42%) that crossed Lake Michigan during warm seasons of 2002–2007 were maintained

  • MCSs maintained during all months and hours but favored:

    • July and August – evening and overnight
  • Compared with those that weakened, MCSs tended to maintain with stronger:

    • 850-hPa winds – near-surface lake inversions
  • Early warm season 850-hPa wind/inversion strength phase space illustrated a clear differentiation between MCSs that maintained and dissipated



Conclusions

  • MCSs developed in favorable CAPE/shear environment and created strong cold pools in association with dry air aloft

  • Vigorous ascent was maintained over lake as MCSs cold pool depth >> lake cold pool depth and ascent was aided by:

    • extremely stable marine layer – low-level jet
    • Lake Michigan buoyancy gradient – short-wave trough


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