MM5 Model Setup


НазваMM5 Model Setup
Дата конвертації05.05.2013
Розмір629 b.
ТипПрезентации


SNOW SQUALLS: The Anatomy, Impact, and Forecasting of Snow Squalls in New England   PART 3: Snow Squalls in Current Mesoscale Forecasting Models By: Frank P. Colby, Jr. Beth Krajewski


Overview

  • MM5 Model Setup

  • Case Studies

    • January 6, 2004
    • January 13, 2004
  • Conclusions



MM5 Model Setup

  • Nested domains – 36 km, 12 km, and 4 km

  • 23 vertical levels

  • No cumulus parameterization in 4 km domain

  • Initialization at least 6 hours prior to snow squall development



MM5 Model Setup



MM5 Model Setup



MM5 Model Setup



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 6, 2004, 20 UTC



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 6, 2004, 21 UTC



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 6, 2004, 22 UTC



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 6, 2004, 23 UTC



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 7, 2004, 00 UTC



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 7, 2004, 01 UTC



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 7, 2004, 00 UTC



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 17 UTC



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 18 UTC



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 1915 UTC



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 20 UTC



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 21 UTC



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Composite Reflectivity valid 17 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Composite Reflectivity valid 18 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Composite Reflectivity valid 19 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Composite Reflectivity valid 20 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Composite Reflectivity valid 21 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 21 UTC



WINDEX Parameters

  • As Lundstedt showed previously, snow squalls from:

    • low-level thermal instability (LLC)
    • moist air (high RH)
    • trigger mechanism


MM5-WINDEX

  • Snow squalls should form with:

    • big temperature differences
    • high RH
  • Following plots show:

    • low-level thermal instability
    • (temperature difference, surface to ~ 800 mb)
    • RH NOT SHOWN – it was > 80% everywhere


January 6, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 20 UTC, January 6, 2004



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 21 UTC, January 6, 2004



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 22 UTC, January 6, 2004



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 23 UTC, January 6, 2004



January 6, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 00 UTC, January 7, 2004



January 7, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 01 UTC, January 7, 2004



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 7, 2004, 00 UTC



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 17 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 18 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 19 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 20 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 MM5 Model

  • Temperature Difference (oC - white) and RH (% - color) valid 21 UTC, January 13, 2004



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 21 UTC



NCEP Eta Model

  • The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta Model

    • current state-of-the-art
    • 12 km grid – available in 40 km resolution
    • covers all of U.S.


January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 6, 2004, 21 UTC



January 6, 2004 Radar

  • January 7, 2004, 00 UTC



January 6, 2004 Eta Model

  • Precipitation for 3 hours ending 00 UTC, January 7, 2004.



January 6, 2004 Eta Model

  • Low-level temperature difference and RH, valid 00 UTC, January 7, 2004



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 18 UTC



January 13, 2004 Radar

  • January 13, 2004, 21 UTC



January 13, 2004 Eta Model

  • Precipitation for 3 hours ending 21 UTC, January 7, 2004.



January 13, 2004 Eta Model

  • Low-level temperature difference and RH, valid 21 UTC, January 13, 2004.



Conclusions

  • NCEP Eta model – unable to simulate snow squalls

  • MM5 model – has more success, but

    • timing and placement often incorrect
    • orientation and organization can be poorly simulated
    • indirect parameters related to WINDEX can be helpful


Conclusions

  • WINDEX 2.0

    • described previously by Lundstedt


Conclusions

  • WINDEX 2.0

    • described previously by Lundstedt
    • more reliable than direct modeling


Conclusions

  • WINDEX 2.0

    • described previously by Lundstedt
    • more reliable than direct modeling
    • should be used in conjunction with models


Future Work

  • Higher resolution modeling may help

    • more vertical levels
    • smaller grid size
  • Need to test cases when snow squalls did not happen



Questions?



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