Review of Two Storm Force Wind Events across Lake mi


НазваReview of Two Storm Force Wind Events across Lake mi
Дата конвертації05.05.2013
Розмір445 b.
ТипReview


Storm Force wind events of October and December 2010

Kevin Birk, Mike Bardou and Mark Ratzer

WFO Chicago

Review of Two Storm Force Wind Events across Lake MI

  • October 26th “Bomb”

  • December 12th Winter Storm

  • Both events produced Storm force winds (48+ knots).

  • However, the strength and the tracks of the two lows were quite different.



Motivation

  • Increase the forecast accuracy for the onset of high impact winds across Lake Michigan.

-> Gain a better understanding of the main processes that govern the onset and maintenance of storm force winds across the lake .

The October 26th Bomb







12 UTC October 26th











Forecasts For Oct 26th Event

  • Headlines for Gale/Storm watch first issued at 3:42 AM Sun 10/24

    • Gale watch from Monday PM – Tuesday AM.
    • Storm watch from Tuesday PM – Wed evening.
  • Headlines upgraded to Storm Warning at 4:01 AM Mon 10/25.

    • Warning from 4 AM Tue -7 PM Wed.
  • Later forecasts shifted times slightly.



North Half Verification

    • Winds remained below Gale force Until about 10 AM Tue 26th as the cold front passed.
    • Gusts remained below Storm force at the north buoy (peaked at 47 knots Tue PM).
    • Port Inland, MI peaked at 56 knots Wed AM.


South Half Verification

    • Winds remained below Gale force Until about 7 AM Tue 26th as the cold front passed.
    • Gusts remained below Storm force at the south buoy (peaked at 45 knots Tue PM).
    • Chicago Harrison Crib peaked at 65 knots Tues AM.


December 12th Winter Storm

  • Surface Low tracked across Northern IL/Southern Lake MI during predawn hours on the 12th .

  • The low deepened to 988 mb during the afternoon on the 12th as the low moved across western New York.

  • Farther Northwest, Canadian high pressure of 1038 mb moved across eastern Dakotas.















Forecasts For Dec 12th Event

  • Headlines for Gale/Storm watch first issued at 8:50 AM December 10th.

    • Late Saturday the 11th through Monday morning the 13th.
    • Winds to 55 knots on Sunday/Sunday Night the 12th .
  • Headlines upgraded to Storm Warning at 2:27 PM on the 11th .

    • Late Saturday the 11th through Monday morning the 13th.
    • Winds to 55 knots on Sunday/Sunday Night the 12th .


Verification



Considerations

  • Stability over the lake

    • Boundary layer lapse rates.
    • Near adiabatic -> gusts = boundary layer winds.
    • Super adiabatic -> gusts = the max wind in the boundary layer.
    • The track of the low and time of year.
    • Strength of cold air advection.
  • Dynamics

    • Isallobaric wind component.
    • Synoptic scale descent following the passage of a mid level vorticity max and dry slot.


Questions?



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